Predicting the Super Bowl champ by square feet not yardage!

Here’s a little peek at a fun news release that went out yesterday regarding Super Bowl XLV.  Read about our brilliant idea of predicting this Sunday’s champ by looking at historical vacancy rates over the past 10 years in the opposing teams’ hometowns.  It was picked up by the Wall Street Journal in yesterday’s Plots and Ploys. 

Here’s the story as it appeared in the Wall Street Journal 


Wall Street Journal
Plots and Ploys

Reading the CRE Leaves

Like many Americans, Roger Staubach thinks he knows who will win the Super Bowl. Like not so many Americans, Mr. Staubach says his analysis is based on comparative office-building vacancies in Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

“You can mark my word: the Packers will prevail,” says Mr. Staubach, who led the Dallas Cowboys to two Super Bowl victories in the 1970s and later became a real-estate tycoon.

Mr. Staubach’s word was relayed in a press release by Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., the commercial-real-estate brokerage where he serves as executive chairman of the Americas. The company says that teams based in cities with a higher percentage of vacant office space have won the Super Bowl “nearly two-thirds of the time since 2000.”

That trend would hand the title to the Packers of Green Bay, Wisc., (office vacancy: 18.9%) over the Steelers of Pittsburgh (office vacancy: 12.1%).

Jeremy Kronman, a broker in Pittsburgh for Jones Lang LaSalle rival CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., wasn’t impressed with his competitor’s forecast. His reasoning for why the Steelers will win: Some of the healthiest office markets in the country—New York City, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh—are also home to three of the most successful Super Bowl teams.

—Anton Troianovski

Steelers vs. Packers at Cowboys Stadium

By guest blogger: Cory Mageors – Advocatemag.com Sports Blogger

For any self-respecting Dallas Cowboys fan, the only way this could have been a worse pairing for Super Bowl XLV, would have been if the San Francisco 49ers joined in.   Three of the Cowboys franchise’s most memorable losses came to those teams.  You know them, I won’t rehash.

However, for any true fan of professional football, the 12-time World Champion Green Bay Packers squaring off with the six-time Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers is a great opportunity.  It’s an opportunity for the old school and the new school to match wits.

Old School – Pittsburgh Steelers
Tough. Defense. Running game. Just finds a way to win.

On the defensive side of the ball Pittsburgh is a solid unit, with a perennial talent in Troy Polamalu.  I am fairly certain I saw Polamalu sack the quarterback on a run play and also get credit for tackling the running back.

Offensively, Ben Roethlisberger leads with his ability to shuck defensive ends like kindergarteners, and make clutch throws downfield. All the while, he finds balance with the running game.

This season alone, the Steelers held opponents to 17 points or less 12 different times, and less than 13 points 10 times. If defense wins championships, then Pittsburgh might be the first to hoist the Lombardi Trophy seven times. 

New School – Green Bay Packers
Yes, the Packers are a team with plenty of history on their side. I say new school because the new era quarterbacks are throwing the ball effectively and often.

Aaron Rodgers threw for 3,922 yards and 28 touchdowns this season, and has more than 180 yards more than any other quarterback this post season.

He is the pulse of this Packers offense, and is just plain fun to watch.

On the other side, the Green Bay defense can force a turnover all over the field. Charles Woodson is an elite defensive back, and did you see 337-lb. B.J. Raji pick off a pass and take it in for a touchdown?

If the big and physical Green Bay receivers make the grabs when it matters, then this Packers offense will make big plays and score against a stingy Pittsburgh defense.

While Cowboys nation will have a tough time watching either team enjoying the post-game confetti shower, professional football fandom should enjoy a treat in Super Bowl XLV.

Great fans coming to Cowboys Stadium

So we are only a little over a week out.  Of course I would have preferred to see the Cowboys playing in this year’s Super Bowl, but getting to watch two teams with a great winning tradition will make for a good game. 

Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers are known for their great fan base.  I remember when Tom Landry was inducted into the Hall of Fame, and the Pittsburgh fans gave him as good an ovation as they did for their guys.  The fans on both sides really love football and love their teams.  They are really good fans.  It’s good for the game to have two teams with such a supportive fan base.

Personally, I would prefer to hand off the Vince Lombardi trophy to Green Bay on February 8th.  It’s nothing personal towards the Steelers; it’s all competitive.  The Steelers are a great winning team.  The Cowboys have played in more Super Bowls, but the Steelers have won more.  Winning the Super Bowl XLV would give them even more of an advantage over the Cowboys, and I have to stay true to my home team. 

I’ve always had such great respect for the Rooney family and those Steelers fans – they are as nice as can be.  Really first-class.  I’m excited to see these two great teams battle it out next weekend.

NFC Championship game

Notes from our researcher, Steve Triolet

The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have been in the playoffs together only four times, and this year marks the first time they have met in the playoffs since 1941. Seventy years ago, Chicago beat Green Bay 33-14.

In this seasons finale, the Bears could have knocked the Packers out of the NFC Wild Card spot all together by winning. However, the Packers finished with a 10-3 win and clinched a spot in the playoffs in a game that apparently did not matter to Chicago who had already clinched the NFC North.

Now, the Bears and Packers meet on Sunday for a chance to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLV.

Market expectations and reality

Notes from our researcher, Steve Triolet

2010 has come and gone, and like many years, there has been a stark contrast between what we thought was going to happen and what really happened.  This holds true for the Dallas Cowboys 2010 season (with their Super Bowl aspirations before the season began) and for the Dallas office market (which was expected to perform poorly throughout the year).

When I look back at both, there’s one large parallel between the two – they both changed dramatically halfway through.  For the Cowboys, did anyone still have any hope of anything positive happening after a one and seven start?  The coaching change did help, the cowboys didn’t go undefeated thereafter, but they were competitive for the remainder of the season.  For the Dallas office market, things looked relatively bleak at the beginning of 2010.  The recession which, had been slow to hit Dallas in comparison to most parts of the country, was still weighing heavily on the commercial real estate sector. For many in the business world there was a secret fear that the worst for Dallas was still yet to come – that we would be as adversely impacted as the rest of the country, but just at a later date.

Dallas was certainly impacted by the national recession.  At mid-year, the total vacancy rate for Class A & B office product was 24.8 percent and the total net absorption was a negative 914,343 square feet (downsizing by tech companies in the Richardson/Plano area being the largest contributors).  Average asking rental rates were in a steady decline, hovering at $20.72 per square foot (full service gross).

In the second half of the year, however, due to a combination of no new office construction, modest job growth, corporate relocations, and an increase in leasing activity, the market has appeared to have turned the corner.  The total vacancy rate at year-end was 23.6 percent, net absorption for the year was a positive 479,116 square feet and rental rates, though not yet rising on a weighted average basis, have stabilized at $20.34 per square foot.  Rents are actually showing the first signs of increase with a handful of landlords raising their on properties that have seen significant rises in occupancy.  Given all the available facts, things look better for 2011 whether you’re a Cowboys fan or just a member of the Dallas business community.

One month and counting

It’s one month and counting until the Big Game, and the activity is already starting to heat up in the new year.  Check back with us on Monday for more news as we take a look back at what happened in real estate in 2010.

And what about that exciting news for the Cowboys announced yesterday?  Maybe 2011 will be their year.

All about the discipline

In my 30-plus years in our business, we’ve occasionally seen issues with people who aren’t team players.  In business and in football, success can come down to two things – people that are all on the same page and a leader that’s willing to stand firm. Just like in real estate, when we’re pitching teamwork, we have to make sure that at the end of the day, we have enough of the right people making sure we do the right things. If we don’t, sometimes the coach has to step in. 

Most guys are going to do the right thing, but you can have issues with the 10 % who don’t have good self-discipline.  And the coach needs to deal with those.  Back in Coach Landry’s day, if you were late for a meeting, even if you had a wreck on Central Expressway, you were fined, bottom line. 

Jason Garrett is bringing back the discipline the Cowboys need to be a good team again. It’s obvious that the discipline is translating to results on the field and that’s what’s happening with the Cowboys now.  Kitna has stepped in and has done a nice job, and I can say I’m still a big Tony Romo fan.  It looks like all the momentum is there for next year when Tony comes back.

Heisman talk

I voted again for the Heisman this year.  I got to pick the number 1, 2 and 3.  It was definitely up for grabs, but Cam Newton of Auburn was this year’s winner.  I think he’s a great athlete and good kid. 

However, my number one choice was actually Andrew Luck out of Stanford.  This coming season, I think he will be the first quarterback drafted and the number one draft pick.  He is a high draft choice and more of an NFL type.  He’s likely to be the next Troy Aikman.

Giving back this holiday season

Today we had the pleasure of hosting lunch for over 200 members of our Armed Forces with the USO out at DFW Airport as they prepared to depart to the Middle East.  Many of the soldiers were travelling with colleagues they didn’t know, so we wanted to make the transition at the airport as easy as possible.  We kept hearing “thank yous” from them, but it was the Jones Lang LaSalle crew that is truly thankful for their service. 

Private First Class Parker was sitting with this family earlier this week in Mississippi celebrating the holiday, and next week he’ll be patrolling the streets near Kandahar in an armored vehicle subject to IED blasts each day.  While we enjoy the holidays with our families, it’s important not to forget soldiers such as Private First Class Parker’s service, sacrifice, and commitment.  I hope Santa will be making a stop in Kandahar this year.

Another major NFL matchup to take place this month

Notes from our researcher, Steve Triolet

Double check the schedule all you want, no matter which team is the hottest at the moment, arguably the most important matchup is scheduled to take place in Dallas in mid-December.  That’s win the NFL and the player’s association (NFLPA) will meet to discuss their collective bargaining agreement which will expire in March 2011.  If an agreement is not reached, there is the potential for a lockout next year.

Nobody wants a lockout, but the general consensus in the sports world is that the owners are better prepared for one than the players are (the owners would still receive revenue from television contracts and merchandise sales, while the players don’t have this luxury, and they have limited years to play the game).

The current point of contention between the owners and NFLPA is expanding the regular season to an 18-game schedule (the two extra games would shorten the current pre-season schedule of 4 games to 2).  The union is concerned that the longer season could result in more injuries to players and could potentially shorten their careers.  In November, the NFLPA offered a counter proposal for two bye weeks for each team, to expand each term roster from 53 players to 56 or 57 players, to limit the amount of full contact in training camp, to reduce voluntary off-season workouts, and to reduce the number of years players need to play in the league to become eligible for post-career health benefits.

Outside of this, money is at play.  The owners want the longer season to increase stadium attendance revenue and television viewership revenue, and the players are demanding increased salaries to be prorated for the additional games.

My predictions are that both sides will agree to an 18-game schedule with the two bye weeks, but that the proposal to expand the team roster to 56 or 57 players will be rejected (owners don’t want to pay more players than they already do).  The owners look like they’ll agree to one additional roster spot.   I’m not too sure about training camp and offseason workouts.  Only the players really care one way or another about that issue as it doesn’t directly impact revenue and the average fan doesn’t care how the players prepare for the season – as long as they perform well on the field.

This whole process is sure to take a couple of turns before it’s resolved, and we’ll touch on it again as it progresses.  The possible lockout has potentially very large implications – one could argue that the Dallas Stars are still feeling the impact of the NHL lockout of 2004 – 05.